Cool tool, but quants caused the housing bubble and obviously moneyballing film doesn't work. The biggest problem with MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) methods is assuming that you can really predict the future from the past. You can't totally, and this cannot be the basis of your optimization function. In truth, MCMC isn't supposed to be used for this purpose, but it is in practice. It should only be viewed as probabilities nothing more. As the industry seeks to reduce it's risk analytically, it will lead to creating a stale films which lack the kind of fresh creativity that attracts audiences to movies. Think about it, why would I want to see the same actors in the same movie over and over again? That's hollywood's problem in general. They don't get that audiences really respond to original and novel experiences because this is hard to quantify. That said, you can't just optimize for minimizing risk, profit must also be maximized. This means LP's should be employed. It's a min/max analysis on top of the MCMC. But before that you must identify the key attributes that contribute to higher revenues. This could be gleamed from ML -- as classifiers. This would minimize bad assumptions, maybe. But, when it comes down to it, films cost too much and so does marketing. Studios need to focus on using new media more effectively to reduce marketing costs, and they should stop bloating their budgets. But, quiet as it's kept, the real money in this biz is made on the way in. This is why Relativity failed. They made stale shitty movies that took no risk and then spent too much making and marketing them.
Reminds me of nightmare.tv
I totally disagree with you. If everyone thought the way you do then there would be no art left in the world. Artists have always been poor, and this idea of becoming a rich and famous artist is a rather recent, and rare occurrence, a by product of mass marketing (which is dead). Artists can't change the fact that this is who they are. They hold aesthetics in the highest regard the way an ascetic holds god in the greatest of esteem. Money is not the goal of all things, only business, if that were true many great inventions would not exist. Living your life worrying about your 401K and social security is a truly pathetic first world problem. That's living in fear and it's no kind of life at all. Even with your 401K and social security check you are going to end up like everyone else, inevitably dead. And, along the way you will probably rack up a bunch of chronic illnesses and wind up sitting around in old age looking back trying to estimate if you lived your life to the fullest. If your desire was to make art then at least you can look back on your art and say this is what I made and who I was. As a scared wage drone, trying to be a good slave on a money plantation, you are going to have nothing, but a couple of acorns you stocked away, and that won't be enough with the rise in the cost of living and your consumption rate. Even the home you'll own will be little more than your coffin ultimately. The only real value and worth to your life is the one you give it, not some numbers on a ledger. I can laugh at your opinions comfortably. I am one of those people with a Ivy Engr. degree/s and I still make film. In fact, I'm more of a filmmaker than an Engr. I spend all my money on my art and I wouldn't think of living any other way. I'm a creative, that's why I'm an Engr. and also why I'm an artist. Everyone needs to accept who they are and stop trying to be who they think others want them to be. I could care less about being Spielberg, winning academy's or any other egotistical external bauble. This art is about me and for me. It's philosophy made concrete. Oh yeah, I have two kids as well. We live in the most expensive city in the USA and somehow I'm doing all of this and sticking to my dreams. I want my kids to believe in themselves and not be a boat-rower. Anyone reading this should do the same and don't let these fear-mongers destroy you. Only dead fish swim with the current.