It’s November, which means everyone has now completely focused on the 2026 Oscar race and who's going to win.

I blame betting sites, but really, this is when all of Hollywood launches their FYC campaigns, so people start talking and prognosticating.

This year, the race for Best Picture isn't just crowded; it’s dominated by a powerful mix of auteur-driven epics, beloved festival darlings, and a few high-concept blockbusters that could go all the way (but will probably not).

So today, we're going to break down the films everyone is talking about for the 2025 movie year.

Let's dive in.


The 2026 Best Picture Race

👑 The Top-Tier Frontrunners

Right now, most experts agree the race is being led by a powerful trio of films, each representing a different "type" of Best Picture winner.

One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)

This is the film to beat. And I truly do not think anyone has a shot to do it. It was directed by Paul Thomas Anderson, and it has been described as a modern epic. The cast includes Leonardo DiCaprio, Benicio Del Toro, Chase Infiniti, and Teyana Taylor. They all may be up for awards as well. This film has the star power and critical adoration that voters love. And PTA is a long-overdue Academy favorite. It feels like this is the year for him.

Hamnet (Focus Features)

The big emotional powerhouse of the year, directed by previous Best Picture winner Chloé Zhao, this adaptation of the novel about Shakespeare's family was the talk of Telluride and Toronto. It went on to win the TIFF People's Choice Award, a marker that has predicted countless Best Picture winners, including Zhao's Nomadland. Expect this to be a major contender across the board.

Sinners (Warner Bros.)

Don't ever let anyone tell you a spring release can't win. Ryan Coogler's ambitious period vampire film was a massive critical and commercial success back in April. It’s an ambitious original blockbuster that tackles deep themes. If the Academy wants to reward a film that truly resonated with the moviegoing public (like Oppenheimer or Top Gun: Maverick), Sinners is its champion.

🎬 The Auteur & Festival Darlings

These are the critical darlings and international films rounding out the top of the list. I do not think they have a shot to win, but I believe they will be nominated.

Marty Supreme (A24)

A surprise debut at the New York Film Festival, this Josh Safdie film is A24's big play. It's reportedly carried by a "career-best" performance from Timothée Chalamet, who is the current frontrunner for Best Actor.

Sentimental Value (NEON)

From Joachim Trier, the director of The Worst Person in the World, this tender family drama was a huge hit at Cannes. It's also Norway's official submission for Best International Feature, and it will probably win. It has a stellar ensemble cast (Renate Reinsve, Elle Fanning, Stellan Skarsgård) and might sneak into the BP running.

It Was Just an Accident (NEON)

Another major festival winner, this film from acclaimed director Jafar Panahi is France's official international submission. It’s a politically charged story that has earned universal acclaim and is considered a lock for a Best International Feature nomination, but again, might sneak in for BP.

💥 The Blockbusters

These are the big-budget studio films that have the scale, craft, and popular appeal to make a serious run for the top prize.

Wicked: For Good (Universal)

The first part of the massive musical event hasn't been widely seen, but early buzz is strong. This is expected to be a crafts monster, sweeping nominations for Production Design, Costumes, and Sound. Ariana Grande is also a major frontrunner for Best Supporting Actress. If the film is a critical and box office hit, it will absolutely be in the Best Picture lineup, but probably won't win.

Frankenstein (Netflix)

Guillermo del Toro is back with his take on the classic monster. The Academy loves GDT, and this is Netflix's big prestige push for the year. Like Wicked, it's expected to dominate the technical categories, but Del Toro's pedigree could easily propel it into the top 10.

Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century Studios)

The golden rule: Never bet against James Cameron. The first two Avatar films were both nominated for Best Picture, and this one is expected to follow suit. It will be a visual effects marvel, and its guaranteed box office dominance makes it a "sure bet" for a nomination.

🏃♂️ The Films Still in the Mix

These films are firmly in the conversation and could easily snag a nomination as the season progresses.

Jay Kelly (Netflix)

A star-studded dramedy from Noah Baumbach starring George Clooney and Adam Sandler. It has great reviews and may take a few acting categories.

Bugonia (Focus Features)

Yorgos Lanthimos's follow-up to Poor Things may be too strange for some voters with its wild ending, but its all-star cast (Emma Stone, Jesse Plemons) keeps it in the race.

Train Dreams (Netflix): An emotional drama that premiered at Sundance and is getting a late-season push from Netflix.

Summing It All Up

It's a long road to the Oscars, but these are the films setting the pace. It'll be interesting to see how they pan out and where the odds shift as more of them get wide releases.

Are there any big titles I left off?

Let me know what you think in the comments.

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