During awards season, it's always fun to watch all the movies you can and to make predictions about how you think deserves to take home the awards.

My favorite ceremony is the Oscars. It's impossible to work in Hollywood and not imagine yourself raising one of those statues and making a big speech.

Today, I want to go over some of the Academy Awards and make my predictions for who will win the Oscar. The nominations are not even out yet, so this is just based on articles I've read and the buzz around town.

Let's dive in.


2025 Oscar Predictions

As you read through this list, I went through the categories I felt like I had the best handle on. We're still waiting for awards noms from places like SAG and the WGA, so it's hard to predict without those.

I didn't go over every category but I tried to give you a wide array.

Best Picture

  • Frontrunners:Emilia Perez, Anora, Conclave, The Brutalist
  • Strong Contenders:Wicked, A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two
  • Dark Horses:The Substance, Nickel Boys, All We Imagine as Light
Prediction: The Brutalist.
It's hard to bet against this absolute epic. This far-reaching movie about an immigrant's journey is so singular in modern Hollywood it's hard to imagine how it got made. And we shouldn't miss the opportunity to celebrate it.

Best Director

  • Frontrunners: Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Edward Berger (Conclave), Sean Baker (Anora)
  • Strong Contenders: Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez), Jon M. Chu (Wicked)
  • Dark Horses: James Mangold (A Complete Unknown), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)
Prediction: Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)

As I mentioned above, this movie is a feat. See it in 70mm. The direction is sublime and the ability to deliver a long story with an intermission and still keep the audience is a throwback quality I wish more people had.

Best Actor

  • Frontrunners: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
  • Strong Contenders: Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer)
Prediction: Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)

This prediction is based purely on Brody already having an Oscar. I feel like the Academy is old enough to both appreciate Bob Dylan's music and also be excited by Chalamet, who is a younger face but has a great pedigree.

Best Actress

  • Frontrunners: Demi Moore (The Substance), Mikey Madison (Anora), Karla Sofia Gascon (Emila Perez)
  • Strong Contenders: Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)
  • Dark Horses: Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl)
Prediction: Demi Moore (The Substance)

After winning the Golden Globe, she feels guaranteed to pick up the Oscar, and she deserves it. She is amazing in the movie and she has the history to woo voters across generations.

Best Supporting Actor

  • Frontrunners: Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown),
  • Strong Contenders: Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
  • Dark Horses: Yura Borisov (Anora)
Prediction: Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)

This is one of the harder categories to predict. I think Culkin has a lot of goodwill and people generally like this movie. I thought his performance was inspired.

Best Supporting Actress

  • Frontrunners: Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
  • Strong Contenders: Margaret Qualley (The Substance)
  • Dark Horses: Ariana Grande (Wicked)
Prediction: Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

Again, hard to predict. I just can't imagine this movie doesn't take home something after its Globe showing. So I am picking it to win big here. And Saldana brings real chache to this movie.

Best Original Screenplay

  • Frontrunners:Anora (Sean Baker), The Brutalist (Brady Corbet)
  • Strong Contenders:Emilia Perez (Jacques Audiard)
Prediction: The Brutalist (Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold)

Again, I am predicting this movie to sweep many of the major awards. It feels like it is gaining momentum and has the juice.

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • Frontrunners:A Complete Unknown (James Mangold)
  • Strong Contenders:Conclave (Edward Berger)
  • Dark Horses:Nickel Boys (RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes)
Prediction: Conclave (Edward Berger)

Another one of my favorite movies this year, I think this had wide commercial appeal, and it doesn't feel like it would be shut out. While it may only pick up writing, it was one of theb est written, directed, and acted movies. It could win in any category.

Best Cinematography

  • Frontrunners:Dune: Part Two (Greig Fraser), The Brutalist (Lol Crawley)
  • Strong Contenders:Anora (Sean Baker)
  • Dark Horses: The Substance (Charlotte Bruus Christensen)
Prediction: The Brutalist (Lol Crawley)

Looking at this movie is a sumptuous experience. It's hard to take it all in at once. I had to see the film twice to really understand the nuance and beauty in all of the shots.

Best Film Editing

  • Frontrunners:Dune: Part Two (Joe Walker)
  • Strong Contenders:Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One (Eddie Hamilton)
  • Dark Horses: The Brutalist (David Corwin)
Prediction: Dune: Part Two (Joe Walker)

I wrestled with this pick. I really love all these editors. But Dune: Part Two was such a huge hit and was so well put together. Everything builds and swells at all the right moments. I could see it winning.

Summing Up Our 2025 Oscar Predictions

If you think I missed any of these or want to argue for another movie, please put your idea in the comments.

It will be interesting to see how this all shakes out, and exciting to see the deserving winners lift their awards.

Let me know what you think!