We're in the heat of the awards season, so studios are releasing all those movies they think could be in contention for Oscars. And we're getting PR campaigns dropping for movies that came out earlier this year, caught on, and are making the push now, too.
We've already talked about the frontrunners for Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars, but today, I want to go over the titles I think will be in the mix for cinematography. I've seen buzz around all the titles and read through the trades to try and find a consensus mix.
Let's dive in.
Oscar Predictions for Best Cinematography
'One Battle After Another' Credit: Warner Bros. The Frontrunners
These are the films I'm confident will be in the conversation until the very last ballot is cast.
- 🏆 The Likely Winner: Sinners
- DP: Autumn Durald Arkapaw
- Why it's a lock: Arkapaw (who shot Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) teams up with Ryan Coogler for a 1930s Southern vampire gangster musical that has a oner heard around the world. The buzz around her use of IMAX 65mm film to capture the expansive, gothic Delta landscape, combined with intimate, moody interiors, makes this feel like the technical front-runner.
- ✨ The Auteur's Epic: One Battle After Another
- DP: Michael Bauman & Paul Thomas Anderson (PTA)
- Why it's a lock: PTA is a visual master, and for this epic (shot on the incredibly high-resolution Beaumont VistaVision camera and 65mm film), he has officially shared the DP credit with his frequent collaborator, Michael Bauman. It's an automatic prestige contender and the only title that can probably unseat Sinners.
Strong Contenders
These films have the pedigree and early praise to secure a nomination easily. But I do not think they can win.
- Hamnet
- DP: Łukasz Żal, PSC
- Why it's a contender: Żal is a two-time nominee for the stark, beautiful black-and-white work in Ida and Cold War. Teaming up with Chloé Zhao, whose eye for natural light and sweeping, emotional landscapes is renowned, this film is rumored to be gorgeous.
- F1: The Movie
- DP: Claudio Miranda, ASC
- Why it's a contender: Miranda, an Oscar winner for Life of Pi and nominee for Top Gun: Maverick, knows how to put you in the cockpit. Director Joseph Kosinski and Miranda are pioneering the use of custom, high-speed camera systems mounted directly onto Formula 1 cars. This will be pure visual adrenaline and a technical marvel that voters won't be able to ignore.
The Dark Horse
This project could surprise us and sneak into the final five.
- Avatar: Fire and Ash
- DP: Russell Carpenter, ASC
- Why it could surprise: The Avatar films are the definition of cinematic spectacle. Carpenter is an Oscar winner, and while the motion capture is the technical star, the sheer scope and innovative 3D camera work (the Sony VENICE with Rialto 3D system) make it impossible to rule out. The new underwater and fire-based environments promise a striking visual upgrade.
My Final Five (For Now!):
- Sinners (Autumn Durald Arkapaw)
- One Battle After Another (Michael Bauman & Paul Thomas Anderson)
- Hamnet (Łukasz Żal)
- F1: The Movie (Claudio Miranda)
- Avatar: Fire and Ash (Russell Carpenter)
Summing It All Up
These are the movies I really liked this year and the ones I think look incredible. It's great to highlight the hard work these DPs did, and I hope they all get the accolades they deserve.
Let me know what you think in the comments.
