Bad News: L.A. Production Has Still Not Bounced Back

As a resident of Los Angeles, I am always hoping to see production come back in droves. We've seen it leave over the last ten years. Now, politicians are talking about ways to spur the economy and to get it back. But that all might be too late.

According to a recent report from Variety, the post-strike rebound we were all promised in 2026 hasn’t just been slow, it’s virtually non-existent.

If you’re a filmmaker living in LA, you’ve likely felt this, or at least seen it in the closures of restaurants and the absence of job listings. Maybe, like me, you're taking survival jobs just to stay afloat.

Let’s look at the numbers, and then let’s talk about what this means for you.

The Numbers Are Bleak

The latest FilmLA report is a sobering reality check. Production in Los Angeles is still down nearly 20% compared to its five-year average. While there was a tiny 5% bump in the fourth quarter of 2025, largely thanks to the expanded California tax credits, it hasn't been enough to stop the bleeding.

And as we go into another year of guild contract negotiations, people are doing whatever they can to survive.

Here’s the breakdown:

• Television is the hardest hit: TV shoot days are down a staggering 50% from the five-year average.
• Reality TV is cratering: Usually the "safe" bet for steady work, reality production dropped 12% in the last year alone. We see a lot of that shooting overseas.
• Feature Films: While independent films are taking advantage of new tax incentives, big-budget studio features are increasingly looking elsewhere.

Why Isn't LA Bouncing Back?

People love to blame the strikes, but the real reason is that California was just never competitive enough with its tax incentives. Jobs moved all across America first, then overseas, and to Canada. And CA never bothered to keep up.

Here are a few other big issues I see us facing:

1. The "Hostile" Reputation: Producers are increasingly viewing Los Angeles as a "hostile place to film." Between permit fees, "inconvenience fees" from local businesses, and the general bureaucracy, it’s becoming harder for indies to justify staying local.
2. Global Competition: While LA stalls, places like the UK, Georgia, and Ontario have doubled their soundstage capacity since 2020. It's cheaper, and there's more space available for less. Plus trained crews.
3. The Incentive Gap: Even with Governor Newsom pushing to raise the tax credit cap to $750 million, California’s 20-25% credit still struggles to compete with the 30% (or higher) offered by global rivals who don't have the same $100 million spending caps.

What Does This Mean for You?

I know what you’re thinking: Jason, should I pack my bags? I'm right there with you, and I just had a kid, so I am freaking out.

While I am not leaving LA, I am shifting my strategy. And I've been talking to a lot of local producers who are saying the same thing. If the "old" Hollywood of 2019 isn't coming back, you have to adapt to the 2026 version.

• Go Small or Go Home: FilmLA is launching "low-impact permits" for small crews. This is a massive hint. If you’re waiting for a $50 million studio gig to land in your lap in Burbank, you might be waiting a while. The work that is staying in LA is lean, mean, and independent.
• Expand Your Map: If you’re a DP or a Producer, you can’t just be "the LA person" anymore. You need to understand the tax incentives in Atlanta, Albuquerque, and London. Your value is no longer just your craft; it’s your ability to help a production survive financially. Maybe it is time to go.
• Diversify Your Skillset: With reality TV and traditional episodic work down, the "middle class" of filmmaking is being squeezed. Now is the time to look at high-end commercial work, brand storytelling, or even the tech side of the industry (AI, virtual production, etc.) that is still centered here.

Summing It All Up

I do believe that when CA gets a new governor, they're going to have to expand on what Newsom has done to try to bring these gigs home. But that could take a while.

Los Angeles will always be the heart of the industry’s creative brain, but the "factory floor" is moving. And I don't blame anyone who chases it.

Let me know where you're thinking about going in the comments.