Interesting reporting out of The Hollywood Reporter this week, where they're proclaiming a film's second weekend is now basically its opening weekend.
Looking at The Fantastic Four: First Steps as its example, THR points to a continuing trend in big-budget movies. They might open strong, but can they sustain their momentum through a second week?
Marvel's movie was coming on the heels of DC's hit Superman. The marketing push was strong. How would it fare? Either way, many in the industry were measuring the two against each other.
In this case, it didn't go so well. While Superman held relatively steady with a 53% drop, Fantastic Four cratered by 67%, falling to just $38.7 million in its second week. That 14-point difference tells a story that the opening weekend couldn't. One film connected with audiences, the other didn't.
This pattern repeats constantly in Hollywood, yet studios still get caught off guard by it. Opening weekends grab headlines and drive initial industry chatter, but the second frame reveals what audiences actually think once they've had time to process a film and share their opinions.
Joker: Folie à Deux Credit: Warner Bros.
This isn't a new phenomenon. For example, when The Marvels and Joker: Folie à Deux suffered record-breaking drops during their releases, it reflected the new reality. Disappointing films get rejected faster than ever. (Marvels dropped somewhere around 80% in its second weekend, the worst ever for an MCU title, while Joker dropped 81%.)
The shift from an average second-weekend drop of 15.7% in the 1980s to 49.1% by 2012 suggests that audiences are just more discerning about how they spend their time, and buzz is going to play a huge part in their decision-making process (via Slate).
I know I was watching the results for Weapons closely last week. Zach Cregger's horror film did well in its second week, dropping just 43% (per Variety). As a horror fan, I'm happy to see it do well, but I could also tell that people were talking about it a lot after its opening. On TikTok, creators were already cosplaying Gladys and making their own "2:17" videos set to the George Harrison song. I'm sure that enthusiasm drove a lot of curious film fans to check it out the second weekend.
For filmmakers, this means the fundamentals matter more than ever. Focus on creating strong characters and a story that resonates. No amount of superhero spectacle or franchise branding can save a film that fails to engage audiences emotionally.
And the second weekend reflects whether you made a movie people actually want to talk about.
